Europe prepares for gas ‘nightmare’ as pipeline from Russia shuts down

Economy / July 12, 2022 / DRPhillF / 0

BERLIN – A major natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany was shut down for scheduled maintenance on Monday, raising concerns that Moscow may use the reforms as an excuse for a longer shutdown as it uses energy supplies as leverage in the Ukraine war.

European ministers have warned that it is unclear whether Moscow will return the taps on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline after 10 days of scheduled work. Germany’s Economy Minister, Robert Habeck, said Berlin was worried about a “terrifying scenario” this winter if Russia decided not to.

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“Anything is possible and everything can happen,” he told Deutschlandfunk radio on Sunday. “We have to prepare for the worst.”

Speaking at a business conference in southern France, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire went further, saying a full cut was the “most likely scenario”. “It would be completely irresponsible to ignore this scenario,” he said.

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline pumps about 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany every year. From there, it is also distributed to other countries in Europe. Indeed, the entire European Union has said weaning itself off Russian gas should be a priority, but many member states still rely heavily on Moscow.

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Despite its scramble to diversify its supplies since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Germany still depends on Russia for about 35% of its supplies, while France gets 17% of its gas needs from Russia.

As it tries to build up gas reserves before winter, when demand is at its highest for heating in homes, the German government has urged consumers to conserve energy by taking cooler showers and using fewer air conditioners. Some large residential landlords have gone even further, limiting nighttime heating and hot water to tenants.

Habek, who said he would take a shorter shower, has drawn up a contingency plan in the event of another supply crisis, which would include government intervention in the energy market.

At Berlin’s invitation, Canada agreed over the weekend to return Nord Stream 1’s turbine to Germany, despite Ukrainian objections. The equipment was stranded in Montreal, where it underwent repairs, due to Canadian sanctions against Russia.

Germany feared that if the turbine was not brought back in time for scheduled maintenance, Russia could use this as an excuse not to restart the gas. Last month, Russia reduced flows to 40% of the pipeline’s total capacity, citing delays in bringing equipment back into service, a move Western countries have dubbed “energy blackmail.”

The Ukrainian government on Sunday criticized Canada’s decision to return the turbines, saying it would encourage Moscow to “continue to use energy as a tool of hybrid warfare against Europe”.

Ukrainian officials argued that there was no technical basis for Russia’s request to return the turbine because the pipeline could operate without it. They say Moscow is choosing to weaponize the gas flow in response to the sanctions.

“This dangerous precedent violates international solidarity, contradicts the principle of the rule of law, and will have only one result: it will reinforce Moscow’s sense of impunity,” the Ukrainian foreign and energy ministries said in a statement.

Since the all-out Russian invasion in February, Ottawa has sanctioned more than 1,000 people and entities, including Russia’s oil and gas sector and its manufacturing industry.

But the conflict over the turbines has left Canada, home to the world’s second largest Ukrainian diaspora, caught between two allies: Germany, a NATO partner, and Ukraine.

Alexandra Chichic, head of the Canadian-Ukrainian Congress, called the decision “a acquiescence to Russian blackmail”, while the opposition Canadian Conservative Party said it would harm the country’s “position on the world stage”.

But the State Department said it supported Ottawa’s decision.

“In the short term, the turbines will allow Germany and other European countries to replenish their gas reserves, increase their energy security and resilience and counter Russia’s efforts to transform energy into weapons,” spokesman Ned Price said on Monday.

Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources, said Saturday that the permit to return the turbine is “time-limited and revocable.”

“In the absence of the necessary supplies of natural gas, the German economy will suffer very great difficulties, and the Germans themselves will face the risk of not being able to heat their homes as winter approaches,” he said.

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Kendra Nichols of The Washington Post contributed to this report.