The PC industry suffered its worst decline in years, but how bad it will be depends on Apple
PC shipments suffered their biggest year-over-year decline in the past quarter, but how many years depends on the performance of Apple Inc.
On Monday, research firms International Data Group and Gartner released estimates for worldwide PC shipments in the second quarter, both showing a double-digit percentage drop to levels before the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a boom in PC sales. While Gartner called the drop “the biggest drop in nine years,” IDC told MarketWatch that “from a growth rate perspective,” it’s the worst drop its analysts have tracked since they began covering the PC market in the mid-1990s.
IDC reported that shipments fell 15.3% to 71.3 million, the second consecutive quarterly decline and a deeper decline than the single digit seen in the first quarter, with an analyst saying consumer demand is “at risk of doom in the long run.” Gartner reported that shipments fell 12.6% from a year ago to 72 million.
The contradiction lies in the Apple AAPL,
: Gartner estimates Apple shipments rose 9.3% to 6.4 million units, but IDC is tracking a 22.5% decline to 4.8 million units. Mikako Kitagawa, director of research at Gartner, told MarketWatch that she couldn’t talk about IDC’s numbers, but said that companies have different historical numbers that affect growth and decline rates, and that their estimates “calculate all Macs,” based on the assumption of “fixed update demands.” M1 Mac, which has been accelerated by business users”.
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IDC’s Mobile Tracking Devices Research Director Jitesh Ubrani also told MarketWatch that he could not comment on Gartner’s research or methodology, but did provide more color.
“What I’m going to say is that based on IDC’s research, we heard that Apple was targeting larger volumes than the second quarter, but due to shutdowns and worsening logistics, volume was below target, and our initial search came to 4.8 million,” O’Brani told MarketWatch by email. . comments. “June in particular was a bad month as volumes fell below targets.”
Companies agreed that the decline was relatively broad, blaming ongoing supply chain issues, the COVID shutdown in China and macroeconomic headwinds, with the largest drop in shipments from HP Inc. US heavyweight HPQ,
“Recession fears are mounting and weakening demand across sectors,” Oberani said in a statement.
“Consumer demand for PCs is weak in the near term and is at risk of doom in the long run as consumers become more cautious about their spending and are once again accustomed to computing across device types such as phones and tablets,” said Obrani. Meanwhile, business demand was more robust though also declining as companies delayed purchases.
“The decline we saw in the first quarter of 2022 accelerated into the second quarter, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, inflationary pressures on spending, and a sharp drop in demand for Chromebooks,” a statement.
“Supply chain disruptions have also continued, but the main reason for PC delivery delays has changed from component shortages to logistics disruptions,” Kitagawa said. “Business buyers continued to experience longer PC delivery times than usual, but lead times began to improve by the end of the second quarter, in part due to the reopening of major cities in China in the middle of this quarter.”
IDC said second-quarter sales of this year were similar to those at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, when second-quarter 2020 volumes were 74.3 million, IDC said. PC sales boomed during the first two years of the pandemic as consumers and businesses stocked up on working from home and using video conferencing software such as Zoom Video Communications Inc. ZM,
That taxed old computers.
As of April: The PC pandemic boom is over, but its legacy will live on
China Lenovo Group Ltd. 992,
It led the pack in shipments, according to IDC’s schedule, with shipments down 12.1% to 17.5 million units, as HP shipments fell 27.6% to 13.5 million units. Dell from Dell Technologies, Inc.,
Shipments fell 5.3% to 13.2 million units, while shipments by Acer Inc. to 2353,
Shipments decreased 19.2% to 5 million units. Apple and Asustek Computer Inc. 2357,
It took fifth “statistical” place, said the International Statistics Institute.
Gartner reported that Lenovo shipments fell 12.5% to 17.9 million units, HP shipments fell 27.5% to 13.5 million units, and Dell shipments fell 5.2% to 13.3 million units. Gartner also said that Acer shipments fell 18.7% to 5.1 million units, and Asustek shipments fell 4.3% to 4.7 million units.
Citi Research analyst Christopher Danley said in a note on Monday that there did not appear to be any signs of improvement. While June notebook shipments rose 31% month over month, that was less than its forecast for a 40% rise.
“We expect PC demand to continue declining throughout 2022 through 2023,” Danley said. The analyst reiterated his neutral ratings on both Intel Corp. INTC,
and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. AMD,
Although Intel seems to be more vulnerable when it comes to PC slowdown.
Danley said that while AMD derives about 35% of its revenue from the PC industry, 90% of Intel’s sales come from the PC and server segments.
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