The two big events in the US this week are the GDP data and the FOMC rate hike – a preview of both
The endless debate about the correct definition of stagnation continues. That’s why I call it endless.
It continues before the US GDP data due this week, Thursday, July 23:
- This snapshot is from the ForexLive economic data calendar, Access it here.
- The times in the leftmost column are GMT.
- The numbers in the rightmost column are the “previous” result (previous month/quarter, depending on the case). The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the expected average consensus.
Moody’s has a preview:
- Among the upcoming key data is Q2 GDP, which our high-frequency GDP model shows is on track to decline 1% at an annualized rate. Before the pre-assessment, some additional source data will be released, but GDP is still likely to decline for the second consecutive quarter.
- The weak GDP so far this year has been attributed to volatile and often volatile components – net trade and inventories – while domestic final sales and gross domestic income have remained significantly better. Also, GDP is only one of many variables that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the de facto judge of recessions in the United States, uses to define a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread throughout the economy, lasting for more than a few months, showing Usually in production, employment, real income and other indicators.”
Also this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets, the statement is due at 1800 GMT on Wednesday, July 26 at 1800 GMT, with Fed Chair Powell speaking at his press conference at 1830 GMT. Mody again:
- In monetary policy, the Federal Reserve The target range for the federal funds rate is likely to increase by 75 basis points. There is no data released prior to the FOMC meeting that will likely push the committee to raise by 100 basis points.