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  3. /Why are gas prices dropping? Don’t thank Biden

Why are gas prices dropping? Don’t thank Biden

Economy / August 6, 2022 / DRPhillF / 0

We can’t thank Joe Biden for lower gasoline prices just as we couldn’t blame him when prices went up earlier this year.

Politicians can exert some influence on market trends, but oil and gasoline are two commodities dictated by global supply and demand. Put simply: Gasoline prices are falling because demand is falling, allowing stocks to recover.

Oil, the main component of gasoline, fell below $90 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since February, when Russia invaded Ukraine and triggered a global energy crisis. Traders are nervously offloading more supplies as signs of recession persist.

To what extent have gasoline prices decreased?

The average price of gas in Houston fell to 3.73 cents a gallon this week after rising above $4 a gallon for the first time in history in the months following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prices here are down nearly 70 cents a gallon over the past month and 91 cents since prices peaked here at an average of $4.64 a gallon.

How do gas prices compare today to normal prices?

Houston residents are still paying nearly 97 cents more per gallon than they did last year, even as prices are steadily dropping. Nationally, gas prices averaged about $4 a gallon, compared to $3 a gallon last year, when vaccinations boosted summer travel, and $2.60 a gallon in July 2019.

The early pandemic brought the lowest gas prices in recent memory, dropping them to $2 a gallon nationally in July 2020, as the coronavirus intensified and the shutdown destroyed demand.

Why is the demand dropping now?

Part of the decline is seasonal. People drive more in the summer and the driving season peaks in early July and then tapers off in the fall. We can blame the rest on inflation.

Inflation reduces the purchasing power of consumers and forces them to reduce spending. It has become such a driving force that it is doing more to reduce gasoline demand than the pandemic did in the summer of 2020, according to Department of Energy data released Wednesday.

Gasoline demand is down 8 percent to 8.5 million barrels a day over the past week — 13 percent down from 9.8 million barrels a day during the same week last year, and nearly 1 percent less than the same week in 2020.

Why don’t diesel prices drop more?

Diesel prices aren’t dropping as much as gasoline because diesel demand hasn’t fallen sharply and inventories are still incredibly low — distillate stocks, which include diesel, are still 25 percent below normal for this time of year.

Will prices continue to fall?

The trends look good, but we’re not out of the woods yet. Gasoline prices should drop gradually if the US economy weakens. If America avoids a recession and demand does not subside, prices are likely to remain high. Oil producers are still struggling to hire workers and get equipment that is out of stock, so they will need time to ramp up their capacity if demand remains high.

And narrow refining capacity also makes us more vulnerable to disaster – a hurricane or fire that damages a refinery could drive up fuel prices.

amanda.drane@chron.com

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